Britain’s financial oil price downturn is still looking forward to reducing production odds-roselip

British finance: low oil prices are still looking forward to reducing production, winning geometry, the client to see the latest market, crude oil prices continued to decline on the last trading day. Earlier, oil prices were affected by the global oil inventories, New York oil fell for sixth consecutive days, reaching a new low of 12 years. At $26.21 a barrel, it closed down $1.24, or four point five percent; London oil fell 30 dollars, closing at $30.06, down 78 cents, or two point five percent. Crude oil prices have risen sharply this morning, mainly because of reports that OPEC countries are preparing to cooperate to reduce production. New York oil rose to $27.43 a barrel after the market closed, nearly four point six percent higher than the closing price. On the news, the Wall Street Journal quoted the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates, Arabia, said that the oil organization is preparing to cooperate with the reduction of production, and the current price of oil is not suitable for all oil producing countries, and has forced the oil producers outside the organization to limit the increase in production at least. In addition, Sino US stock market sentiment, OPEC latest bill, the situation in the Middle East and inventory situation, the Iran supply news, the U.S. oil export policy will also affect oil prices. From the supply side, the market share game among the major oil producing countries is still going on, and the major oil producing countries do not seem to have the intention to take the lead in reducing production. It is difficult to eliminate the excess supply worries, but it does not exclude the accidental cooperation agreement to promote oil prices to rise. From the demand side, the global manufacturing economic data show signs of recovery, but the demand for crude oil growth is still quite slow. The oil price shocks, excess supply fears always like a sword of Damocles, with cooperation in oil producing countries cut rumors gradually be falsified, oil prices down again, some speculation funds rebound illusion cut deliberately also mercilessly burst, the current oil price has fallen to break the range of $28-30, but there are a certain number of bargain hunting in the vicinity more than 12 year low, speculative funds try to comeback, or subsequent shocks in the wide below $30. If the positive economic data or events affecting the stock market sentiment, expected future prices of crude oil supply, still have the opportunity to once again challenge the pressure, but also to guard against the supply pattern of the game did not really break, the development of the prisoner’s dilemma or cause prices later fell sharply, support 26.06,24.50, resistance 29.41,31.37. At present, the price of oil is greatly affected by the news, and the prisoner’s dilemma game of excess oil supply is difficult to crack. An important event today [entry strategy] 1) 0900 in the Asia Pacific stock market is expected to stabilize the amount of good positions, volatility over 0.1~0.3 $2) to 1530 in the fourth quarter, not seasonally adjusted annual rate of GDP higher than expected amount of good initial position, amplitude more than 0.1~0.3 $3) 1800 in the euro area, the fourth quarter GDP annual rate higher than expected amount of good warehouse more than $4), the amplitude of 0.1~0.3 2130 in the United States in January retail sales rate higher than expected amount of short positions, amplitude more than 0.3~0.5 $* * 5) 2300 in the United States in February, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

英伦金融:油价低迷依旧 再盼减产胜算几何 客户端 查看最新行情   上个交易日原油价格继续下滑。较早时,油价受全球石油库存增加所影响,纽约期油连续第六个交易日下跌,创12年来新低。以每桶26.21美元收市,跌1.24美元,跌幅百分之4.5;伦敦期油曾经跌穿30美元,收市报30.06美元,跌78美仙,跌幅百分之2.5。而原油价格今早急升,主要是因为有报道说,石油输出国组织国家准备合作减产。纽约期油在收市后场外交易最高升至每桶27.43美元,比收市升近百分之4.6。消息面上,《华尔街日报》引述阿拉伯联合酋长国能源部长表示,油国组织准备合作减产,而目前油价并不适合所有产油国,已经迫使组织以外产油国起码限制增产。此外,中美股市情绪、OPEC最新议案、中东局势及库存状况、伊朗供应消息、美国石油出口政策,亦会左右油价。从供应面看,主要产油国间的市场份额博弈仍在持续,各大产油国都似乎并未有率先减产的打算,供应过剩担忧难以消除,但亦不排除意外达成合作协议促使油价走高。从需求面看,全球制造业经济数据有复苏迹象,但对原油的需求增长仍然相当缓慢。油价前期震荡下挫,供应过剩的担忧情绪始终如利剑高悬,随着产油国合作减产的传闻逐渐被证伪,油价再度陷入跌势,部分炒作减产的资金有意制造的反弹假象亦遭到无情破灭,目前油价已跌破28-30美元区间,但在逾12年低位附近有一定数量的逢低买盘,投机资金尝试卷土重来,后续或在30美元下方宽幅震荡。若经济数据利好股市情绪,或事件影响原油供应预期,未来油价仍然有机会再度向上挑战压力位,但同时亦要警惕供应博弈的格局未真正打破,囚徒困境的发展或导致油价后期大幅走低,支持看26.06,24.50,阻力看29.41,31.37。目前油价受消息面影响较大,原油供应过剩的囚徒困境博弈难以破解,较高值搏率的交易策略,以适量逢高做空或突破区间追单较有利。   【今天重要事件入市策略】   1) 0900以亚太区股市回稳预期适量好仓,波幅逾0.1~0.3美元   2) 1530以德国第四季度未季调GDP年率初值高于预期适量好仓,波幅逾0.1~0.3美元   3) 1800以欧元区第四季度GDP年率高于预期适量好仓,波幅逾0.1~0.3美元   4) 2130以美国1月零售销售月率高于预期适量淡仓,波幅逾0.3~0.5美元**   5) 2300以美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值高于预期适量淡仓,波幅逾0.3~0.5美元**   6) 在无突发事件下,以技术走势下市策略如下:   A)首触28.30适量淡仓,目标27.73,26.06   B)上破28.50适量好仓,目标29.41,30.60   C)跌穿26.06适量淡仓,目标25.00,24.50   D)首触24.50适量好仓,目标25.00,26.00   油价在各主要产油国争夺市场份额而在供应上进行博弈、需求总体复苏缓慢的情况下,料走势会较为大幅震荡,但由于最新公告的页岩气生产成本约在45~55美元区间,短线料该区间上下3~5美元,即约60~42美元区间成主要角力区。油价有机会在下挫后短时间内大幅反弹,并有机会超逾原水平,与市者必须具备足够保证金以应对有关风险,掌握创富先机。   【重要支持及阻力】   【环球市况焦点及分析】   昨日行情继续如分析预期发展,金价飙涨至一年高位并录得逾七年来最大单日涨幅,油价则一度创逾12年来新低,尾盘才稍有回稳,若按英伦分析策略逢低做多黄金并逢高沽空原油,相信已收获丰厚的新年红包。虽然昨日耶伦的讲话仍未明确提及推迟加息,但其不得不多次强调当前风险,暗示联储对待加息的谨慎态度,美元再度走低,而随着股市重挫,避险情绪急剧升温,金银成为资金的避风港。油价仍然低迷,但尾盘时候阿联酋能源部长的言论使市场重燃对减产的希望。本周市场焦点在美元和联储官员的言论,周中联储主席耶伦时隔近两个月再次公开发表讲话,其老练的言辞并未给市场提供太多明确的线索,不过分析师解读其多次强调经济面临的风险因素,相信联储在对待加息方面的态度会更加倾向鸽派。数据方面,美国零售数据料略有改善,不过消费信心则继续滑落,让衰退论经久不息。在欧洲,欧盟第四季度GDP预计环比增0.4%,快过上季,其中意大利经济追上欧洲平均数。欧盟12月工业生产从上月的收缩中复原。此外,中美股市情绪、OPEC最新议案、中东局势及库存状况、伊朗供应消息、美国石油出口政策,亦会左右油价。技术上,油价前期震荡下挫,供应过剩的担忧情绪始终如利剑高悬,随着产油国合作减产的传闻逐渐被证伪,油价再度陷入跌势,部分炒作减产的资金有意制造的反弹假象亦遭到无情破灭,目前油价已跌破28-30美元区间,但在逾12年低位附近有一定数量的逢低买盘,投机资金尝试卷土重来,后续或在30美元下方宽幅震荡。若配合供应过剩忧虑缓解或者需求复苏理想的利好消息,油价反弹力度可以很大,投资者需紧盯消息面动向,顺势而为。   英伦金融【原油】:油价低迷依旧,一度创逾12年来新低。1)首个即市策略,跌破26.32,目标26.06,25.30,突破可追24.50,24.00。2)反之,升穿27.73可适量造多,看28.30,28.50,突破追29.41,30.15。3)最后一个策略,目前原油供应过剩迭加需求复苏缓慢局面并未根本改变,囚徒困境难以破解,部分资金炒作合作减产的可能,实际达成协议难度很大,可以29.41-31.37区间作适量空单,追0.5~0.8美元突破利润。留意后市波动且快且急,必须准备足够的保证金及严守止损。   【纽约股市】纽约股市跌超过百分之1。道琼斯工业平均指数,跌超过400点后收复大部分失地。收市跌254点,报15660点;标准普尔五百指数跌22点,报1829点。市场担心全球经济增长会放慢,投资者加强避险意识,美股受影响。在金融股带动下,各类股份全面下跌,工业股与能源股表现亦较差。不过有报道引述阿拉伯联合酋长国能源部长表示,石油输出国组织国家准备合作减产,消息有助大市反弹。道指以全日最高开出,下午最多跌411点,至1万5500点边缘,尾段收复部分失地,收市跌百分之1.6;标普五百指数跌百分之1.2,都是连续第五个交易日下跌。若美股走强则利好油价上扬。   【美元指数】美元兑主要货币汇价普遍下跌,兑日圆触及15个月来低位。市场除担心全球经济发展放慢,亦担心银行体系受压力,避险资金流向日圆,加上怀疑日本中央银行负利率成效,美元兑日圆曾经跌百分之2,至111水平。美国今年加息机会降低,美元兑其他货币亦受影响,欧元兑美元升至1.13水平。技术上,美元指数跌破96水平后低位盘整。目前美联储不容美元走得太强,走势是在没干预下上扬,到一定位置则有打压,走势有人为因素及避险资金支持。   【现货原油分析】   【技术面分析】技术上,由于主要产油国的市场份额博弈仍然持续,OPEC干预政策停留在纸上谈兵,供应过剩陷入囚徒困境,需求复苏缓慢,导致油价跌跌不休。对供应过剩的担忧情绪如利剑高悬,油价构成三重顶形态后大幅下挫并连续失守多个支撑位,往后在消息支持下屡次报复性反弹,但反弹往往很快结束并回吐涨幅,油价近期在构筑头肩顶形态后大幅下挫并再次跌破28-30美元区间支撑,目前在逾12年来新低附近存在一定数量的逢低买盘,炒作产油国合作减产的资金似乎试图借消息卷土重来,再度兴风作浪,油价或反复宽幅震荡,但长期下行趋势若无法扭转,后续或将进一步考验25美元寻求支撑。此外,中美股市情绪、OPEC最新议案、中东局势及库存状况、伊朗供应消息、美国石油出口政策,亦会左右油价。投资者需时刻关注消息面动向,顺势而为,风险的头寸必须有所规划。   黄金回调分析:   阴阳烛形态:   顶底形态及均线分析:   市况爆发性及急促性高,媒体对油价波动诠释又见谬论,入市前必须头脑清醒,严守止损。   【指数及外汇市场对油价关注事项】   —-, 美元指数升破97.16, 中, 0.5美元, 美元上行确认则油价受压   —-, 美元指数跌破95.24, 中, 0.5美元, 美元乏力回调则油价受惠   —-, 美股升回17785上方, 中, 0.5美元, 美股走强上扬则油价受惠   —-, 美股跌破14806下方, 中, 0.5美元, 美股乏力回调则油价受压   现货黄金、现货白银、原油、外汇交易皆有一定风险,但只要选择零滑点平台,即可把风险大大降低,同时加上准确的分析服务以及理智、系统化的操盘模式,取得高回报并非难事。至于如何建立系统化的操盘思路,以及准确分析的窍门,可以通过免费报读英伦金融在线互动课程了解。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章:

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